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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.