How Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles With Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.